We’re into the year 2025, and yet there’s still the opportunity for history to be made and records to be shattered.
One such milestone occurred across Tuesday September 30 and Wednesday October 1 in the English Championship: across the 12 games played, none of them ended in a home win.
It was the first time in history that a single gameweek in the second tier had failed to have at least one home team coming out on top.
No home wins in the four Championship matches tonight, either… https://t.co/QQBtyzGnYL
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) October 1, 2025
What’s more, across 26 English fixtures on the two dates mentioned – 12 in the Championship, two in League One and 12 in the National League, only Carlisle United were able to win in front of their own supporters for a remarkable home win ratio of just 3.8%.
This could be one of those anomalies you get in football sometimes: after all, it was on September 27, 2025 that eight injury time goals were scored in seven Premier League fixtures – the most in a single day in the EPL’s history.
But it got us thinking all the same: is home advantage less of a factor in English football now than it has been for decades?
What the Stats Say on Home Advantage in English Football
Lies, damn lies and statistics.
Data can be manipulated and reshaped to fit a certain narrative, which is why Mark Twain’s famous quote above still retains much of its context.
But it’s hard to argue with the stats which tell us that the home win rate during the First Division season of 1895/96 was 64.6%. By 2015/16, this had dropped to 41% (English Premier League). This remained at 41% during the EPL’s 2024/25 term.
It’s therefore impossible to question the logic that home teams have less of an advantage today than they did more than a century ago.
Even in the modern context, the numbers are illuminating. Here’s the Premier League home win ratio since 2004/05 at five-year intervals (2018/19 replaces 2019/20 in our data due to the latter being impacted by the pandemic):
- 2004/05 – 46.5%
- 2009/10 – 50.8%
- 2014/15 – 45.7%
- 2018/19 – 47.6%
- 2024/25 – 41%
Although the numbers jump around a bit, it’s still easy tod raw the conclusion that home advantage has become less of a phenomenon in the Premier League over the past two decades.
A similar theme, albeit on a smaller scale, has been witnessed in the English Championship (47.5% home win rate in 2004/05, 46% in 2024/25), while in League One around 43% of games ended in a home victory in both of those seasons.
In League Two, meanwhile, a home win ratio of 45.1% in 2004/05 had fallen to 42% as of 2024/25.
So, in the past 20 years, home advantage has lessened in three of English football’s top four leagues, while staying roughly the same in the other. Therefore, our stats suggest that our original idea – that playing on home soil is not the edge it once was – is correct.
The Dark Days of the Pandemic
None of us really want to remember the Covid pandemic of 2020/21.
But it was interesting in a football context, with football games mostly played behind closed doors. It created an intriguing scenario: would there be less of a home advantage with games played behind closed doors?
One notable study, which researched nearly 5,000 games worldwide played during the pandemic without fans, found that the home teams both scored far fewer goals and, therefore, won a significantly lower number of points than in non-pandemic seasons.
In real terms, the impact was that home teams won around 3% fewer games with no fans present than they did with supporters in the stands.
But the numbers were more considerable in the Premier League, with away wins up by a whopping 26% during the pandemic era.
It was also notable that the number of yellow and red cards issues to away teams during Covid fell when no fans were present – suggesting that match officials ARE, even subconsciously, affected by bias when vociferous home supporters are in their ears.
Which leaves us with an interesting paradox to muse: if home advantage is weakening in English football, but home fans do generally have a positive impact upon their team’s results, then what the heck is going on?
The Fandemic
It would be fair, anecdotally, to suggest some kind of a link between ticket prices in football and the levels of passion shown by fans.
Typically, but not always, we would surmise that the loudest groups of fans in football are working class males aged 16-40. And that’s the same group that will be hurt the most when ticket prices are increased.
For context, average ticket prices at Premier League clubs have increased by an inflation-smashing 800% since 1990, when the EPL was the humble First Division. The takeaway point? Working class, low income fans are being priced out of watching their teams.
Perhaps we’ve entered an era in which home supporters are less vocal than in previous years, which in turn has helped to make away games less hostile – and, with less pressure placed upon, maybe match officials are becoming more ‘neutral’ when making those fine line, 50/50 style decisions.
The scourge of ticket resale sites surely isn’t helping. Although fans should, in theory, resell their tickets at face value price, many don’t – instead, ‘black market’ operators sell them at eye-wateringly inflated rates.
The result? More ‘tourist’ fans, especially at iconic venues like Anfield and Old Trafford, who are more interested in filming games for their social media channels than actively engaging in them, vocally, as a supporter.
Away days are somewhat easier for the visiting side to adjust to anyway, with generic modern stadia, first-class pitches (certainly at Premier League and Championship level) and smoother travel conditions all contributing to the ease with which away teams can adapt to their surroundings.
But without partisan home fans, it’s little wonder that home wins in English football are becoming less commonplace.
