There are some things that happen out on the football pitch that have even the most casual observer thinking: ‘what’s that all about?’ During major tournaments, one such peculiarity can rear its head once more: substituting players on/off late into extra time for the specific purpose of them taking a penalty should a shootout ensue – or, in the case of a goalkeeper, in a bid to save them.
At the World Cup in 2026, we saw this curiosity once again when Australia head coach Tony Popovic decided to sub off Patrick Beach, his first-choice goalkeeper, and replace him with Mat Ryan in the 119th minute of their Round of 32 game with Egypt.
It was a calculated move – Ryan has saved 12 of the 69 spot kicks he has faced in his career, but on this occasion it didn’t pan out: Australia missed two penalties and Egypt scored all four of theirs taken… with the Socceroos’ shot stopper getting nowhere near them. Popovic said afterwards:
In the end it didn’t work out that way, but not because of Maty’s poor judgment or lack of ability. They took really good penalties.
Many will be wondering: what is the success rate of these shootout substitutions… do they actually yield results?
Australia brought on Matt Ryan just before the end of extra time to face Egypt in the penalty shootout.
He didn’t make a single save, and Egypt scored every penalty 😅 pic.twitter.com/HvAg9bKUtv
— ESPN UK (@ESPNUK) July 3, 2026
When Penalty Shootout Substitutions Have Worked
The line between success and failure with this strategy is very fine: if the player substituted on misses their penalty, or if they’re a goalkeeper they are unable to make any saves, it’s labelled a disaster… even though there’s no evidence to suggest that the player they replaced would have done any better.
Popovic’s decision was a headscratcher though, given that Beach – a naturally bigger man than Ryan in terms of height and reach – had enjoyed a fantastic tournament, earning Player of the Match honours against Turkey.
One of the originators of the plot was Louis van Gaal, the former Netherlands and Manchester United head coach. It was back at the 2014 World Cup that he subbed on Tim Krul at the expense of his number one goalkeeper, Jasper Cillessen, in extra time of their quarter-final with Costa Rica. This was something that hadn’t been seen before at a major tournament, with BBC host Gary Lineker commenting:
It is slightly insulting, possibly, for Jasper Cillessen but Louis van Gaal is a very single-minded, confident individual – it is a brave call and he will live or die by it.
That was very much a metaphorical life and death situation, but thankfully for Van Gaal his sub goalkeeper would deliver the goods on the biggest stage. Krul saved twice, the Netherlands won and went on to reach the semi-finals, where they would take on Argentina.
That game also went to penalties, although it was Cillessen that had to face the shootout this time – he was unable to help out his colleagues as Argentine won 4-2 on penalties. Kepa Arrizabalaga won the 2021 UEFA Super Cup for Chelsea as a 119th minute substitute.
He replaced Edouard Mendy in the Blues’ goal and went on to save two of Villarreal’s spot kicks – the Spaniard was barely on the field for five minutes in all, but contributed massively to Chelsea’s victory. Ironically, Australia have previous at this – their former head coach, Graham Arnold, substituted Ryan and put on Andrew Redmayne in the second half of extra time in their crunch World Cup 2022 qualifying play-off against Peru.
Redmayne turned out to be an agent provocateur, throwing away the water bottle of Peru’s goalkeeper – that had notes on which way to dive for each Australia taker, before going on to save the decisive penalty after a pre-kick jig that went viral on social media. Arnold commented afterwards,
I was sure they’d studied Ryan and how he moved when facing penalties. But they’d never seen Redmayne before.
Being subbed on in extra time specifically to take a penalty is one thing. But to do it in the World Cup final? That takes remarkable composure on the part of the player.
In the 2022 World Cup final, Argentina and France could not be separated after an extraordinary 3-3 draw. Penalties beckoned, so the Argentine head coach Lionel Scaloni threw on Paulo Dybala in the 121st minute of the absorbing contest. Dybala’s sole contribution? Taking Argentina’s second penalty. Thankfully, he displayed nerves of steel and found the net as his side completed a memorable victory in Qatar.
When Penalty Shootout Substitutions Hasn’t Worked
The numbers have been crunched and the verdict is in: generally, subbing a player onto the field in extra time to take a penalty is not a smart strategy. Opta have found that in World Cups and European Championships held since 1996, there have been 277 penalties within a shootout taken by players that started the match. They scored 201 of those, which is a conversion rate of 73%.
Meanwhile, players substituted onto the field in the second half of extra time have taken 32 shootout spot kicks – netting just 18 of them, for a success rate of 56%. The football data specialists have taken an even deeper dive into the numbers, looking specifically at players that have been subbed onto the field after the 115th minute – in the vast majority of cases, this was specifically to take a penalty in the shootout.
Incredibly, at the time of writing, there were ten players within this group in the timeframe specified… and eight of them missed their spot kick, for a success rate of a measly 20%. Paraguay’s Fabian Balbuena was the latest to join the club at World Cup 2026. He was substituted onto the field in the 121st minute of their clash with Germany, meaning that the centre back hadn’t touched the ball by the time he came to take his all-important penalty.
Well, you can probably guess the rest. Balbuena’s kick was saved, adding his name to a list that includes the likes of Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho and Rodri – those that have missed penalties in a shootout despite being subbed on as a ‘specialist’.
