Going into the game as the 3/10 favourites with the bookmakers, Chelsea were expected to hand Southampton something of a towelling in their December 2024 meeting. The Blues had scored two or more goals in four of their prior five outings, while the Saints were conceding, on average, two goals per game on home soil.
When Chelsea took a two-goal lead after just 17 minutes, the writing was on the wall for the hosts. And when Southampton defender Jack Stephens was sent off in the first half, the contest became little more than damage limitation. But the Blues didn’t rest on their laurels and sit back. They fired 26 shots at goal – 22 of them from inside the Saints’ penalty area, hit the woodwork three times and created an astonishing 12 ‘big chances’. In the end, it all fed into a 5-1 win for Chelsea and an xG count of 5.43, which is the highest ever for an away team in a Premier League game since the stat was first introduced in 2009.
For the uninitiated, xG stands for Expected Goals; a measure of the quality of a goalscoring chance and its likelihood to end up being a goal, based on historical data permed from years of games. Not everybody is a convert to xG, but it should be considered a useful guide in painting a picture of how a football match has played out. In that regard, Chelsea’s Expected Goals count of 5.43 against Southampton was representative of an absolute shellacking. However, it’s not the most xG ever recorded in a single Premier League contest.
The Highest xG in a Premier League Game
Chelsea broke an xG record in their game away at Southampton. 😮 pic.twitter.com/6fPTylXaks
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) December 4, 2024
It feels, almost anecdotally, that more goals are being scored in the Premier League than ever before. It’s a sensation that is franked by the data: for example, the 2019/20 season saw 52% of games witness three or more goals. By 2023/24, that number had risen to 65%.
A catalogue of factors feed into that, from more expansive tactics (thanks, largely, to Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp) to defenders selected more for their attacking or ball-playing prowess than their defensive capabilities. It’s interesting that two of the highest xG counts have both been recorded in 2024: Chelsea’s away day blitz of Southampton, and Liverpool’s bombardment of Newcastle United’s goal on New Year’s Day.
Liverpool vs Newcastle in 2024
The Reds won 4-2 on the day, but the most remarkable takeaway from the Anfield encounter was Liverpool’s xG tally: 7.24, which is the highest in Premier League history since the data was first collected 15 years ago. Mo Salah missed a penalty – that contributed 0.80 to the cause alone, but otherwise Liverpool laid siege to the Newcastle goal, with the Magpies’ keeper, Martin Dubravka, making eleven saves… including that Salah spot kick.
According to the data boffins, Dubravka alone saved 2.67 of xG on a day that the 4-2 scoreline really did not flatter Liverpool’s free-flowing forwards.
FT: Liverpool 4-2 Newcastle
◉ xG: 7.27-0.59
◉ Shots: 34-5
◉ Shots on target: 15-3Liverpool’s 6.68 xG difference is the largest in a single Premier League game on record. 😱#LIVNEW pic.twitter.com/nuh8oR8uMo
— Squawka Live (@Squawka_Live) January 1, 2024
Tied in second place are Liverpool and Manchester City, who both recorded 5.87 of xG against Leeds United and Watford, respectively. Two of the Reds’ goals came from the penalty spot – adding 1.60 to the xG cause, while three of their other goals in the 6-0 rout at Anfield were scored after the 80th minute as their opponents tired.
As for Manchester City, they somehow managed to outperform their incredible xG tally in an 8-0 thumping of Watford back in September 2021. The Premier League has never seen a better start to a game than that of the Cityzens, who found themselves 5-0 to the good after just 18 minutes against the Hornets.
Interestingly, the highest xG in a Premier League game for a single player is 3.35, which was recorded by Raheem Sterling in Manchester City’s 4-1 win over Tottenham in December 2017. Thankfully, he scored twice… it might have been a bit awkward if he hadn’t.
The Lowest xG in a Premier League Game
A special commendation should go to Swansea City, who failed to have a single shot on goal against Huddersfield Town in a Premier League game back in 2018. In fairness to the Swans, they did have Jordan Ayew sent off after just eleven minutes, and shut up shop accordingly thereafter. But zero shots means 0.00xG – in our research, that remains the only time a team has recorded no Expected Goals in a Premier League encounter.
As far as the lowest overall xG count in a game goes, we can’t find any lower than the 0.51 summoned by Huddersfield Town and another Welsh side, Cardiff City, back in January 2019. It was a contest that finished 0-0, unsurprisingly, with just two long range shots on target to speak of. And yet, almost as remarkable, was the fact that the two sides won 13 corners between them, but simply could not find a way to create a clear goalscoring opportunity or two.
You would need to trawl through data for days to find the lowest xG total in a professional game. But as far as Europe’s ‘big five’ leagues are concerned, the borefest between Granada and Atletico Madrid in the Spanish La Liga back in May 2015 takes the biscuit.
On the last day of the 2014/15 season, both teams were happy with a draw to ensure survival (Granada) and Champions League qualification (Atleti). So we shouldn’t really have been surprised that a veritable chess match ensued, with neither side willing to take any calculated risks. Between them, Granada and Atletico Madrid conjured up a combined xG tally of just 0.15, with only one shot on target in the entire game. It finished 0-0, you won’t be shocked to learn.
