When a football team goes a goal down in a game, it takes character and self-belief on the part of their players to believe they can come back and win. Those of a weaker disposition will tell you that the first goal is everything in a football match, but if the evidence of the 2024/25 Premier League season so far is anything to go by, going behind is not the death knell that it once was.
After eleven completed rounds of English Premier League games, a remarkable 21% have seen comeback victories for the team that goes a goal down. It’s the highest percentage in Premier League history, and while it may rise or fall over the course of the entire campaign, there’s one pertinent question that springs to mind… Why?
Goals Galore
What’s interesting about this trend for comeback victories is that it’s occurring simultaneously with an uptick in the number of Premier League goals that are being score. Incredibly, five of the highest-scoring seasons in EPL history have come since 2016/17, with the mind-boggling average of 3.28 goals per game in 2023/24 the most prolific campaign by some margin.
At the time of writing, the 2024/25 season was witnessing an average of a shade under three goals per game, on average, so while the scoring has dropped off somewhat, you can see that there’s ample scope for teams to come back and win even after going a goal (or more) behind. Maybe unsurprisingly, the number of comeback victories has coincided with the increase in goals being scored per game:
- 2021/22 – Goals per game = 2.82, Comeback victories = 11.6%
- 2022/23 – Goals per game = 2.85, Comeback victories = 15%
- 2023/24 – Goals per game = 3.28, Comeback victories = 16.6%
Reasons for More Goals
There’s no single reason why more goals are being scored in the Premier League than ever before. You could cite VAR (fewer goals being ruled out by the officials), more attacking tactics, weaker defending, longer periods of injury time – all of those things, to some extent, have played their part.
As for why the number of comeback wins is on the rise, clearly teams have the self-belief of knowing that even when they go 0-1 or even 0-2 behind, they aren’t out of the game just yet – knowing that more and more goals are being scored these days.
The increased amount of injury time being played is perhaps the most pertinent factor. In the first eleven weeks of the Premier League campaign, as many as 8% of all games were decided by a goal scored after the 90th minute; a trend that offers confidence to losing teams to simply keep going right up until the final whistle.
Bournemouth Defeat Everton in Final Moments
Never more was that in evidence than in Everton’s staggering 2-3 defeat to Bournemouth in August. The Toffees were still 2-0 up as late as the 87th minute, but the Cherries – through sheer self-belief and some charitable defending – were able to score in the 87th, 92nd and 96th minutes to cap one of the most extraordinary comeback victories in Premier League history.
Everton have been amongst the worst culprits for throwing away leads so far this term. They’ve actually surrendered two-goal leads twice, with Aston Villa the other team to profit in a 3-2 win that came in the Toffees’ next outing following their Bournemouth blowout.
Brentford’s Last Minute Attempts
And spare a thought for Brentford. In five of their eleven Premier League games so far in 2024/25, they have taken the lead and failed to hold on to win – having scored in the first minute, incredibly, in three of them. Four of those outings actually ended in defeat too, and while the Bees have been on the other end of the equation as well – beating Ipswich 4-3 after initially going 0-2 down, their inability to hold onto a lead will be causing boss Thomas Frank sleepless nights.
Particularly so given the wider context. During the 2023/24 season, Brentford dropped 30 points from a winning position, which is actually one of the worst campaigns in Premier League history for taking the lead and not closing out the win. Why is that the case? You’d maybe have to ask Frank about that.
Brentford lost more points from winning positions than any other side in the Premier League last season. Can they hold on to their lead against Palace today?
Most Points Lost from Winning Positions in 2023-24:
Brentford: 30
Burnley, Bournemouth: 27
Sheff Utd, N Forest: 26— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) August 18, 2024
Man City Strikes Back
On the other side of the coin is Manchester City, who have been the most adept at delivering comeback victories in the Premier League this season.
They went behind in seven of their first eleven games of 2024/25; a remarkable number given their dominance of English football in recent years. But far from being defeated, the Cityzens have battled back to get something from the game more often than not: their formline in those seven games reads W4 D1 L2.
Which Premier League Club Has the Most Comeback Wins?
Here we take a look at the Premier League clubs with the most comeback wins.
Man City
With less than a third of the 2024/25 campaign gone, City’s haul of four wins from losing positions has put them on track to register the most comeback victories in a single season – mind you, it’s a record that Pep Guardiola won’t particularly savour if it means his team are continually going a goal or two behind.
Man United & Newcastle United
The current record for comeback wins in a season is ten, an accolade held jointly by Manchester United (2020/21) and Newcastle United (2001/02). But the moniker of comeback kings should go solely to that Newcastle side, who claimed an incredible 34 points from losing positions during that 2001/02 campaign.
It’s a double-edged sword: to win games from behind, you have to first go a goal or more behind, which is not what any manager or fan wants from their team. But by the same token, that Newcastle vintage of 2001/02 showed remarkable strength of character to turn adversity into victory on so many occasions.
